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Pascal's Wager

Posted on Sunday, March 15, 2015 | Comments Off

  • Pascal's Wager is an argument in apologetic philosophy devised by the seventeenth-century French philosopher,mathematician and physicist Blaise Pascal (1623–62).[1] It posits that humans all bet with their lives either that God exists or not. Given the possibility that God actually does exist and assuming an infinite gain or loss associated with belief or unbelief in said God (as represented by an eternity in heaven or hell), a rational person should live as though God exists and seek to believe in God. If God does not actually exist, such a person will have only a finite loss (some pleasures, luxury, etc.).[2]
    Pascal formulated the wager within a Christian framework. The wager was set out in section 233 of Pascal's posthumously published Pensées ("Thoughts"). These previously unpublished notes were assembled to form an incomplete treatise onChristian apologetics.
    Historically, Pascal's Wager was groundbreaking because it charted new territory in probability theory, marked the first formal use of decision theory and anticipated future philosophies such as existentialism, pragmatism and voluntarism.[

  • Muhammad's cousin and son-in-law, Ali, was narrated as having said[citation needed]: "The astrologers and the physicians both said the dead will never be resurrected. I said, 'Keep your council. If your idea is correct, I will come to no harm by my belief in the Day of Judgement, but if my belief is correct then you will be a sure loser by not believing in that day.'" (Narrated in Ihya of Al-Ghazali)
  • Muhammad's descendant, renowned scholar and Shia Imam Jafar al-Sadiq, said[citation needed], "If the matter is according to what they (believers) believe, and it is according to their belief, then they will be saved, while you will be ruined. And if the matter is according to what you believe, and it is not according to your belief, then you and they are equal." (Al-Kaaafi, al-Tawhid)
  • The Sophist Protagoras had an agnostic position regarding the gods, but he nevertheless continued to worship the gods. This could be considered as an early version of the wager.[35]
  • In the famous tragedy of Euripides Bacchae, Kadmos states an early version of Pascal's wager. It is noteworthy that at the end of the tragedy Dionysos, the god to whom Kadmos referred, appears and punishes him for thinking in this way. Euripides, quite clearly, considered and dismissed the wager in this tragedy.[36]
  • The Christian apologist Arnobius of Sicca (d. 330) stated an early version of the argument in his book Against the Pagans.[37]
  • Pascal's wager is often concluded (not by Pascal) by stating that people should 'choose the safer wager'. Pascal stated that people could not simply choose to believe, but that they might develop a faith through their actions.
  • An instantiation of this argument, within the Islamic kalam tradition, was discussed by Imam al-Haramayn al-Juwayni (d. 478/1085) in his Kitab al-irshad ila-qawati al-adilla fi usul al-i'tiqad, or A Guide to the Conclusive Proofs for the Principles of Belief.[38]
  • In the Sanskrit classic Sārasamuccaya, Vararuci makes a similar argument to Pascal's wager.[39]
  • Samlin makes a variant argument by suggesting that the concept of God has served the development of society sufficiently well that such influence on history justifies belief.

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